Predictions, scored in public

Each paper that stakes a prediction is scored against the primary record, misses included. Scores change only when the record does.

The Contract Came First · July 2026

7 predictions · 1 hit · 0 missed · 6 open

• OpenNo. 1

  The Williamsport and Surprise task orders will not be terminated for convenience before December 31, 2026. They will remain obligated, and at least one will show additional outlays.

  Open until December 31, 2026. The second part is already met: Williamsport outlays reached $28,471,646.01 through August 2026 (USAspending, as of October 15, 2026).

• HitNo. 2

  The current period of performance on the Williamsport task order expires July 31, 2026. It will be extended rather than allowed to lapse.

  Hit. Modification P00004, signed July 31, 2026, extended the period of performance to October 31, 2026 (USAspending, order 70CDCR26FR0000035).

• OpenNo. 3

  ICE will complete an Environmental Assessment, not an Environmental Impact Statement, for at least one of the two surviving sites, and will use it to support a capacity above 542.

  Open. No completed assessment located as of October 15, 2026.

• OpenNo. 4

  Aggregate ICE detention obligations for FY2026 will exceed FY2025, with the increase concentrated in contracted capacity, facility acquisition, transportation, and biometrics rather than warehouse conversion.

  Open. Fiscal year 2026 ended September 30; scoring waits on full-year award data.

• OpenNo. 5

  The DHS Inspector General's audit (Project No. 26-018-AUD-ICE) will find that ICE paid above market value on multiple acquisitions and will not find that the acquisitions met operational need in a cost-effective manner.

  Open. The audit has not been published.

• OpenNo. 6

  No new empty commercial warehouse will be purchased for detention conversion before the end of calendar year 2026.

  Open until December 31, 2026.

• OpenNo. 7

  The successor construction vehicle will be awarded before the end of FY2027, and the final statement of work will keep NEPA documentation with the contractor.

  Open until September 30, 2027.